The WNBA's Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury are set to face off again on Sunday, July 19, 2026, in a highly anticipated rematch. The Sun's recent surge in form and the Mercury's struggles make this game an intriguing contest. Here's a detailed breakdown and my prediction for this exciting showdown.
The Sun's Rising Star
The Connecticut Sun have been on a roll lately, with a 7-18 record placing them 14th in the league. Their recent back-to-back wins and five victories in the last eight games have been a welcome change. The team's performance against the spread has been impressive, with a 14-11 record, and their over/under performance has been equally strong, going over in 14 of 25 games. The Sun's key players include the formidable Brittney Griner, who averages 13.8 points and 5.7 rebounds, and Leila Lacan, who contributes 13.3 points and a team-high 4.6 assists. Aneesah Morrow, with 10.5 points and 9.4 rebounds, is also a crucial part of the team. However, the Sun's overall scoring and offensive rating are only 14th in the league, and they struggle with three-point shooting, ranking last in the league.
The Mercury's Slump
In contrast, the Phoenix Mercury are going through a rough patch, with an 8-18 record and a 13th-place ranking. They are on a five-game losing streak, and their performance against the spread has been poor, with a WNBA-worst 10-16 record. The Mercury's key players include Kahleah Copper, who averages 20.6 points, and Alyssa Thomas, who contributes 14.5 points, 8.0 assists, and 6.9 rebounds. Jovana Nogic is another double-digit scorer with 10.4 points. The Mercury's defense has been struggling, giving up 87.6 points per game, and their overall defensive rating is 12th in the league.
Recent Head-to-Head Results
The Sun and Mercury had a close encounter on Friday, with the Sun winning 96-83. The Sun dominated the game, stretching their lead to 20 points and winning wire-to-wire. They out-rebounded the Mercury 34-27 and shot an impressive 52% from the floor. This win was expected given the teams' recent trends, with the Sun on a positive trajectory and the Mercury struggling.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rebounding Battle: The Sun have dominated the rebounding battle in recent games, which could be a significant advantage against the Mercury.
- Three-Point Shooting: The Mercury's poor three-point shooting could be a weakness, as the Sun are last in the league in this category.
- Defensive Struggles: The Mercury have given up 92+ points in four straight games, and their defense has been a concern.
- Eastern Conference Matchups: The Sun have a strong record against Eastern Conference opponents, while the Mercury have struggled in these matchups.
Prediction
Given the current form and recent head-to-head results, I predict the Connecticut Sun to win this game. The Sun's recent wins, improved performance against the spread, and dominance in rebounding make them a strong favorite. The Mercury's struggles on the road and their defensive issues could lead to another loss. The Sun's Moneyline odds of +150 make this a tempting bet.
In my opinion, the Sun's recent form and the Mercury's struggles make this a clear choice. The Sun's ability to control the rebounding battle and their improved overall performance will likely lead to another victory. The Mercury's defense needs to step up, or they risk another loss.
This game promises to be an exciting contest, and I'm looking forward to seeing how both teams perform. The Sun's recent success and the Mercury's challenges make this a must-watch WNBA showdown.
